Franklin Pierce University Polling

Political Polling Operations

Nationally-Recognized Results from First-in-the-Nation
New Hampshire Primaries

Fitzwater Center LogoThe university's polling operation, founded in 1999, gained national prominence during the 2000 New Hampshire presidential primary when it chronicled Senator John McCain's rise and eventual double-digit victory in the Republican Primary. Since then, the Institute has conducted polls on state and national issues and political campaigns.

Consistent with the Franklin Pierce University Fitzwater Center's commitment to providing students with outstanding educational experiences in professional environments, student volunteers and interns have immersed themselves in the political polling process.

The University has partnered with the Boston Herald to carry out a polling program that allows students to participate in survey design, data analysis and media relations - all while working to create a statistically-valid product with solid news value.

Veteran political analyst R. Kelly Myers, who conducted polling through five New Hampshire presidential primary seasons, worked with the Franklin Pierce University Polling from 2008 through the 2020 New Hampshire Primary.  During that time he served as a Senior Fellow in the Fitzwater Center, and also taught a political polling course as part of Franklin Pierce's First in the Nation (#FITN) collaboration. He built a firm foundation for The Fitzwater Center’s polling operations, which continue under Dr. Kristen Nevious and with the support of faculty and students.

For more information, please contact Dr. Kristen Nevious at (603) 899-1039 or by sending an email to  


Polling Reports from the 2020 Presidential Election

Poll Released October 6, 2020

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Rindge, NH. - A recent national poll of 1003 registered “likely presidential election voters” finds that former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the race with 51.2% to President Donald J. Trump’s 36.9%, with just 2.8% indicating that they would vote for another candidate and 7.8% undecided. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30, through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=1003) is +/- 3.09 percent with a confidence interval of 95%.  
 
The survey was in the field during a period marked by developments at the nation’s highest levels.  At 12:54 am on Friday, October 2, President Trump announced via Twitter that he had tested positive for COVID-19. Before the announcement, our sample (N=363) showed Biden with a 5.2% (N=363) lead. His lead in the post-announcement sample (N=565) is 20.2%. 

Methodology

The results of this survey are based on a mixed mode design of telephone and online surveys of “likely presidential election voters,” administered Wednesday, September 30, through Sunday, October 4, 2020. The survey was conducted by GMRS Global Marketing Research Services, Inc., a non-partisan organization, and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald. The purpose of the poll is for media release.  
 
A total of 1003 interviews of registered voters likely to vote in the November 3 presidential election were conducted. “Likely voters” were defined as people who reported that they were registered to vote in the United States and that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the November 3 presidential election.  
 
For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 403 completes, gathered through cell phone (65%) and landline (35%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English.  

For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 403 completes, gathered through cell phone (65%) and landline (35%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. 

For the online portion of the survey, the sample was done by Dynata, which pulled random registered voters that have opted in to take a survey and then narrowed down the send to specific quota targets. The sample was directed into projects via an internal router and the surveys were conducted via GMRS’s online portal. A total of n=1254 respondents that have opted in to participate in online surveys were pulled to get the total 600 completes. Online respondents were allowed to complete the survey via mobile browser, and 42% did so.

Quotas on age by male and female, race and religion were derived from similar national surveys. Quotas are primarily used to balance the sample towards the known makeup of the universe we are calling into, as well as remove some biases towards people who are more likely to answer the phone at any given time (for example older Caucasian females).  As we were using a voter file for the calls, we can expire records within the cells that have been completed as to have a minimal effect on incidence and production.

The results of the survey are not weighted. 

Because this survey was in the field when President Trump announced at 12:54 am on Friday, October 2, via Twitter that he had tested positive for COVID-19, the research team took the opportunity to compare the data before that date/time with the data collected after that date/time.  Any interpretation of results must acknowledge the margin of error that dividing the data set yielded.

Telephone interviews ended at 3 pm on Thursday, October 1; the last online survey that day was done at 11 pm. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30 through Thursday, October 1, 2020 (N=383) at 3 pm is +/- 5.01 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

Telephone interviews began again at 9 am on Friday, October 2; online survey data collection started back up at 9 am on Friday, October 2. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Friday, October 2, through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=620) is +/- 3.94 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30 through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=1003) is +/- 3.09 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including mode effects, question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

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See the Questions  

- Dr. Kristen D. Nevious
October 6, 2020

 

Poll Released February 9, 2020

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Rindge, NH. - A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Just a few weeks ago former Vice President Joe Biden seemed to have some momentum, but the results of the Iowa Caucus have had a big impact on Granite State voters. In our most recent poll, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (20%) has risen to statistical tie with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (23%). Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s support has not changed over NBC Boston Logosthe past week (16%), and former Vice President Joe Biden is now polling in fourth place at 14 percent.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears stable. The President has an approval rating of 77 percent today among Republican voters, stable with results from our last poll, but down slightly from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 71 percent but continues to decline. Former Illinois Representative Joe Walsh (6%) and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (8%) continue to trail the President by a wide margin.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered February 5-8, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (75%) and landline (25%) telephone numbers. A total of 952 interviews were conducted, including n=512 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=440 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11 presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 512 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.3 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 440 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum

- R. Kelly Myers
February 9, 2020

Poll Released February 2, 2020

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Rindge, NH.– A recent Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald/NBC10 Boston, NECN & Telemundo poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Our most recent poll shows Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (31%) continues to hold a slight lead over Biden (24%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%). Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (8%) continues to poll in fourth place. NBC Boston LogosAmong likely Republican primary voters, recent events have helped bolster President Donald Trump’s approval rating to 90 percent, the highest since October (81%) and September (83%). The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 72 percent, stable since our last poll.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 29 – February 1, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (70%) and landline (30%) telephone numbers. A total of 892 interviews were conducted, including n=454 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=438 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 454 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.6 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 438 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set

- R. Kelly Myers
February 2, 2020

Poll Released January 27, 2020

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Rindge, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Just a few weeks ago former Vice President Joe Biden seemed to have some momentum, but our most recent poll shows Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (29%) appears to now hold a slight lead over Biden (22%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (16%). Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10%) is still polling NBC Boston Logosstrongly, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar remains competitive at five percent.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears to be remaining stable. The President has an approval rating of 77 percent today among Republican voters, down slightly from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the New Hampshire primary were held today remains high at 72 percent but continues to decline. Former Illinois Representative Joe Walsh and Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld each attract just seven percent of the vote, up from four percent in the last poll.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 23-26, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (70%) and landline (30%) telephone numbers. A total of 736 interviews were conducted, including n=407 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=329 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 407 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.9 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 329 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 5.4 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum  |  See the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
January 27, 2020

Poll Released January 13, 2020

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Portsmouth, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a shift in favor of Joe Biden. In October, the Democratic race was a statistical dead-heat between Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren (25%), Former Vice President, Joe Biden (24%) and Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders (22%). Today, Biden (26%) appears to be leading Sanders (22%), and Warren has dropped to 18 percent. South Bend, Indiana Mayor, Pete Buttigieg attracts 7 percent of the vote, and late entrant Michael Bloomberg is at 4 percent.NBC Boston Logos

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears to be dropping slightly. The President has an approval rating of 76 percent today, down from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 79 percent. Former Illinois Representative, Joe Walsh and Former Massachusetts Governor, Bill Weld each attract just four percent of the vote. 

Going into the Democratic debate in Des Moines on Tuesday, January 14 promises to capture the attention on many New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Seventy-seven percent of Democratic primary voters said that they definitely (29%) or probably (49%) will watch it, which means it could have a significant impact on the race. Less than one-half of likely Republican primary voters said that they definitely (13%) or probably (28%) will watch it.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 8-12, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (81%) and landline (19%) telephone numbers. A total of 836 interviews were conducted, including n=434 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=402 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 434 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 402 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.9 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum  |  See the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
January 13, 2020

 

Poll Released October 14, 2019

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Portsmouth, NH – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds modest shifting support among Democratic voters, while Republicans are largely standing firm with President Trump.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains virtually unchanged since the last poll conducted in early September. Trump’s overall approval rating among Republicans was 83 percent in early September and is 81 percent today. And the percentage of Republicans who strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president was 54 percent a month ago, and 55 percent today. Only 19 percent of Republican primary voters disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president in the most recent poll.

However, the percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today was 88 percent a month ago, and 71 percent today, a 17-point decline. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld’s support increased from 3 percent in early September to 14 percent today. The poll included questions speculating about what would happen if other Republicans were to enter the race, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Ohio Governor John Kasich and Utah Senator Mitt Romney. Relatively few Republican primary voters indicate that they would vote for any of these 3 candidates if they were to enter the race. Haley would attract 9 percent of the vote, Kasich would attract 9 percent and Romney would attract 12 percent.

Among Democratic primary voters, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (30%) was leading his two primary rivals, former Vice President Joe Biden (21%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%) in the September poll. Today, the Democratic race is a statistical dead-heat between Warren (24%), Biden (24%) and Sanders (22%).

The poll included questions speculating as to what would happen if other Democrats were to enter the race, including former First Lady Michelle Obama and Disney CEO Bob Iger. Iger remains largely unknown among Democratic voters and only 4 percent indicated that they would vote for him if he were to enter the race. But if Michelle Obama were to enter the race, it would change things dramatically. Twenty-six percent of Democrats would vote for her, making her the new front runner. Under this scenario, Obama (26%) would lead Warren (20%), Biden (20%) and Sanders (15%). She would take away 4 points from Warren, 4 points from Biden and 7 points from Sanders.

Going into the Democratic debate at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, on Tuesday, October 15, 84 percent of Democratic primary voters said that they definitely (42%) or probably (42%) will watch it, which means it could have a significant impact on the race. Nearly one-half of likely Republican primary voters said that they definitely (12%) or probably (36%) will watch it."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the MemorandumSee the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
October 14, 2019

Poll Released September 11, 2019

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University Poll"Portsmouth, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds that President Donald Trump has a statewide approval rating of 47 percent. Fifty-one percent of all voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing as President.

Among likely Republican presidential primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is very solid at 83 percent. President Trump (88%) also holds a commanding lead over former Massachusetts Governor, Bill Weld (3%) and former Illinois Representative, Joe Walsh (1%). Seven percent of likely Republican presidential primary voters currently report that they are unsure which candidate they support.

Going into the Houston presidential debate, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (29%) holds a lead over former Vice President Joe Biden (21%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%) among likely registered Democrats who plan to vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary. California Senator Kamala Harris (6%), entrepreneur Andrew Yang (5%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (4%) currently constitute a group of second-tier candidates. Nine percent of likely Democratic presidential primary voters currently report that they are unsure which candidate they support. 

Methodology 

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered September 4-10, 2019. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (84%) and landline (16%) telephone numbers. The poll was conducted by RKM Research and Communications. A total of 839 interviews were conducted, including n=425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=414 likely Republican presidential primary voters. 

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent. 

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 414 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the full Data SetRead the Memorandum

- R. Kelly Myers
September 11, 2019

Poll Released August 21, 2019

RKM Research Logo"A recent poll of registered voters in the state of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump (39%) trailing a Democratic presidential candidate (54%) by a 15-point margin using a “generic ballot” question. Without knowing who the actual candidate will end winning the Democratic presidential nomination, it is far too early to draw any significant conclusions from these results. Still, these early numbers suggest that the President Trump could face a competitive race in the Granite State.

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University PollThese results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted by RKM Research and Communication, August 9-20, 2019. The survey is based on complete and useable interviews with 403 randomly selected registered voters in New Hampshire. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of landline (n=166) and cellular (n=237) telephone numbers. The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 403 respondents is +/- 4.9 percent." 

- R. Kelly Myers
August 21, 2019

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Polling Reports from the 2016 Presidential Election

Polling data below is available upon request

November

Nov. 6, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

October

Oct. 16, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

September

Sept. 25, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

Sept. 4, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

July

July 12-16, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

May

May 25-28, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

February

February 2-6, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

February 2-6, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

January

January 26-30, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

January 26-30, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

January 20-24, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

January 20-24, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

December

December 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

December 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

 October

October 19, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

October 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

August

August 11, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

August 11, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers


March

March 30, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

March 31, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

CONTACT

Kristen Nevious, Director

Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication(603) 899-1039

Office Hours

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