Latest Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald Poll: Trump and Sanders Maintain Big Leads in NH
Feb 1, 2016
RINDGE, NH (February 1, 2016)- This morning Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald released the most recent Presidential Poll for the Republican and Democratic candidates leading up to the 2016 New Hampshire primary. The results continue to show Donald Trump with a sizable 25-point lead over the rest of the GOP field, meanwhile Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has opened a 20-point over former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
Donald Trump continues to be the favorite amongst likely Republican primary voters with 38 percent, up 5-points from last week’s Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald poll. Senator Ted Cruz (13%) is running a distant second with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio tallying 10 percent of the vote, followed by Ohio Governor John Kasich (8%). Additionally 57 percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire also believe Trump will be the eventual nominee, a perception that has consistently risen over time.
Unlike the Democratic primary where voters are more likely to report that they have made up their mind from whom they plan to vote, the Republican primary remains subject to significant change. Only about one-half of Republican voters (56%) report that they have made a firm choice, while 44 percent say they could still change their mind. Fifty-nine percent of Jeb Bush’s supporters report that they could change their mind in the final week. Voter volatility is also high for Christie (50% could change their mind), Cruz (41% could change their mind), Fiorina (48% could change their mind) and Rubio (76% could change their mind). Support is a little more stable for Kasich (34% could change their mind), Rand Paul (37% could change their mind) and Donald Trump (33% could still change their mind).
On the Democratic side, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s popularity with Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has dropped in the most recent two polls, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ popularity has continued to rise in the past few weeks. This shift has allowed Sanders (57%) to open a 20-point lead over Clinton (37%) in the race for the Democratic primary, up 4-points from last weeks polling. Hillary Clinton’s high favorability rating dropped in the most recent poll, falling from 83 percent in December to 74 percent a week ago and 72 percent today. Bernie Sanders’ favorability rating, on the other hand, continues to climb. It was at 56 percent in March, 76 percent in August, 83 percent in October, 85 percent in December and 90 percent a week ago. Sanders registered a favorable rating of 88 percent in the most recent poll. Only nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters have an unfavorable view toward Sanders.
One of the most striking findings in the most recent poll is the continued perception that Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. In this most recent poll, 54 percent of Democratic primary voters think Hillary Clinton will ultimately win the nomination, down sharply from 74 percent in December, while 33 percent of Democratic primary voters think Sanders will win the nomination. When Democratic voters were asked if they have made a firm choice in the race, or whether they could change their mind between now and the time of the election, 78 percent report that they have made a firm choice, while 22 percent report that they could still change their mind.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research and Communications on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised live interviewers.
The Republican survey is based on a probabilistic sample 439 likely Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, January 26-30, 2016. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
The Democratic survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 409 likely Democratic presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, January 26-30, 2016.
The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent. The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender and respondent age. In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non- response.
